The U.S. trucking industry has moved past the bottoming phase of the truckload cycle seen in early 2023 and is now navigating a slow rebalancing process as of December 2024. Progress continues, but challenges such as high interest rates and inventory overhangs are shaping the pace of recovery.
Looking ahead to 2025, the North American trucking industry faces a multifaceted landscape influenced by economic moderation, regulatory impacts, and market realignments. Key factors such as freight demand, equipment production, and macroeconomic shifts will present a blend of opportunities and hurdles.

U.S. Economic Outlook – Q2 2025

The U.S. economy begins Q2 with growing uncertainty. Consumer spending has slowed, and inflation remains elevated due to persistent tariffs, especially on autos, aluminum, and steel. Although a temporary 90-day tariff pause offered brief relief, core trade tensions remain. The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady, reflecting concerns about a potential recession, as GDP shows signs of contraction and business investment cools.

Freight and Transportation Trends


Freight volumes remain soft across industrial and retail sectors. Private fleets continue gaining market share, squeezing margins for for-hire carriers. While some capacity reduction is underway—evidenced by declining Class 8 truck build rates and increased used equipment sales—the adjustment is gradual. Spot rates have flattened, with localized boosts from produce season but overall muted momentum.

Vehicle Segment Performance


Class 8 truck orders dropped to multi-year lows amid high inventories and uncertain regulations. Medium-duty (Class 5–7) vehicle demand remains weak, with buyers cautious due to high costs and excess supply. Trailer production rose slightly due to backlogged orders, but new demand is subdued—especially for dry vans. Tariff-related cost pressures on raw materials are stalling investment.

Policy and Market Drivers


Tariffs are adding significant cost per unit—about $360 for Class 8 trucks and over $570 for trailers—squeezing fleet margins. EPA’s upcoming 2027 emissions rules are causing uncertainty, slowing down pre-buying activity. Labor market changes, including potential immigration limits, may impact the driver pool and increase compliance and recruitment costs.

Source: ACT Research – Trucking Forecast 2025